I am not an expert.
I can’t code python into a deep learning machine. And the only RAGS I use are to dry my sweet minivan.
But it’s a tantalizing time to look forward. Human imagination is soaring on the possibilities unlocked by modern AI tools like Chat GPT, SORA, Gemma, Grok, and Groq. (really?)
Our lives have been a timeline of world-altering tech booms.
My interactions were mostly superficial.
Our first family computer was a gateway 2000. That black and white cow-themed boxes is imprinted in my brain. Spellcheck blew my mind.
When AIM rolled out ‘away messages’, it was a gamechanger. I wouldn’t have married my wife without it.
In 2004, this cool site called facebook let my dorm friends and I start the ‘hottest girls on campus’ group. What a time to be alive!
In 2009, my company held off buying iphones because, “people don’t want screen-based keyboards.”
I was too young and dumb to think about how to make money off these things. I just knew they were cool, and I loved using them.
I think that’s the path for AI over the next 10 years. It will integrate with our daily lives in new an exciting ways. It will unlock new opportunities, even as it closes others. But we’ll still be us, and human ingenuity will rule the day.
RIght now, new AI technologies are dropping daily like Ye albums, and it’s easy to get carried away with what 2034 may look like.
And no doubt, change is happening. Rapidly. There is a land-grab occurring right before our eyes and the next generation of great companies are being born.
But while many hope to be a barnacle on the whale, the vast majority of humans on earth don’t interact with AI at all. And that adoption will take a lot longer than those on the bleeding edge typically admit.
All that said, making predictions is plain old fun.
Consider this a time capsule to come back to in 2034. You can point and laugh at how Joe got it all wrong. I’ll pretend to laugh too as I die inside.
Random Business idea #1: “Stake your Claim” website. Make a prediction anonymously. Website authenticates it and reveals it later at your discretion so you can PROVE you were right. And if you’re wrong, oh well it stays anonymous. Small fee.
I base these predictions on a few principles about us humans I’ve come to believe.
- We habitually overestimate the pace at which humans advance and adopt technology
- We get bored with novelty
- Humans value hard work and authenticity
So let’s get into it.
1) Authenticated human content will earn a premium
AI is already producing videos, marketing material, and articles in bulk. It will continue to improve and become more accessible. But we humans are funny creatures. If we know it’s AI, we discount the value. We’ll discount the content and therefore discount the brand. Human generated content will earn a premium because other humans value it more.
Random Business Idea #2: Human content verification business and marketplace. Blockchain use case.
2) Millennials join Gen Z in the online entrepreneurship boom.
I may be projecting on this one, but Millennials are starting to think they got a raw deal. Most of my generation followed the path of their parents. They got good jobs, worked hard to afford a comfortable living, and carved out a quality life.
Meanwhile 22 year olds are making 7 figures hocking ‘Banana Ducks’ on tik tok.
That handful that spent the last 10 years building brands on youtube are now reaping major rewards. Get ready for a bunch of middle aged suburbanites to join the fray.
3) Big companies will be slow to adopt and forced to spend major capital to catch up
The world remains shockingly analog. Don’t believe me? Go to a warehouse in the midwest that isn’t owned by amazon. Inventory is still tracked with pencil and paper because there’s no wifi. Data is loaded into a green screen, ms dos, oregon trail UI so it can be consolidated into 90’s software and exported to excel. Many companies will be slow to adopt AI because they still haven’t upgraded from the last tech boom. The big, slow and complicated companies of the world will see a further divide from nimble new competitors. Massive capital will be spent to survive.
4) Human Coding will boom, not bust
“You don’t need coders anymore.” I’ve heard this over and over as Chat GPT and Gemini show expansive capabilities to write and fix code. That thinking ignores the realities of productized software. Value has always lived at the intersection of ingenuity and product.
What the tools do make possible is the ability to advance your coding knowledge faster than ever. What took 5-10 years of experience will be done in 1-3. That will make coding a more ROI positive time investment for entrepreneurs.
5) Blue-Collar Work will be more profitable than ever
See #3 above. The world is an analog place. Pallets need to get stored, moved, shipped and delivered. Basements still flood and need repair. Machinery needs to be built and maintained.
AI will make the digital world move faster. But it can’t repair heavy equipment in North Dakota in February. And as more of Gen X’s and Baby Boomers retire, the labor force for these jobs will shrink. Those who are willing to do the hard, greasy jobs of tomorrow will earn more than ever before.
Ok that’s all. See you in 2034.
